homepage: https://covh.github.io/cov19de/

covid19 Germany districts visualization v03.6.0

Quickstart:

No reading, just clicking? Then start here: Deutschland.html

Summary:

Study per district ("Kreis", "Landkreis"), the number of reported infections, in two ways:
  1. in comparison to other regions, ranked via a variation of the conditional formatting table of Tomas Pueyo in his Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance --> chart 3
  2. as a time series plot of observables over time (cumulative total cases, daily new cases, smoothed with a simple moving average).

All is based on the excellent crowdsourced data by RiskLayer.com, a research group in Karlsruhe. My instructions how to import that data - now runs in the browser new  !

How to access this data visualization:

Disclaimer:

Everything on this site could just be wrong! Do not base any decisions on this. Always do your own calculations.
If in doubt, check official sources, for example RKI.de and BundesGesundheitsMinisterium.de and WHO.int .

It has been a "quick and dirty" hack ... to put together quite a large site, in minimal time. There might be errors & bugs.
Please: If you see anything here that raises your suspicion, please do alert me. Just raise an issue on github. Thanks.
 



Assumptions and Instructions:

(A1) averaging of the raw data 

The data quality in Germany has a clear flaw: It fluctuates in a weekly rhythm (best to see e.g. in the GRAY wavy curve in the Germany plot) with Thursdays ~twice as many new cases as Sundays. As that mostly delays the reporting (even though in mild cases it might also lead to some unreported cases?), the total number of cases x-days-later will not be (much) affected by that. But the momentary situation "today" or "yesterday" is quite unclear. One workaround to minimize that disturbance comes in two steps: (1) averaging of the cumulative total number of cases over the past 7 days = add up all 7 values, and divide by 7.0, and then (2) shifting that result to the left, by 3 days, because that is where the "center" of that 7 days average is sitting. For this step (1) "averaging" there are actually many choices how to do it, see e.g. this wikipedia page - for now we are choosing a central "simple moving average".

(A1.1) where averages are used

(A1.2) where no averages are used

(A2) sorting by 'expectation day'

(previously: 'center day')

This is used in two places --> The GREEN triangle in each plot marks that day. And all comparison heatmap tables are sorted by that 'expectation day' column.
What is it? -->  (At least until 2nd waves are happening ...) a good proxy for how relatively dramatic the situation still is in a certain region, is what we call the "expectation day" of the daily new cases. The longer ago that expectation day, the more likely the outbreak is under control now.  The expectation day is calculated like this:

     expectationday = sum_over_all_daynumbers [ daynumber * daily_cases(daynumber) ] / total_cases

with
total_cases = sum_over_all_daynumbers [ daily_cases(daynumber) ]
daynumber = 0 is the first day for which we have data (and incrementing for each later day), and
daily(daynumber) = the number of additional cases per daynumber (note that for the very first day (the day with daynumber = 0) that is undefined.)

in other words, the "expectation day" is: the average day, weighted with the number of new cases for each day = so we get an "expectation value" for the day = randomly picking any of the cases, that "expectation day" is a good estimation for the "when". We had initially called it "center day" but that caused some confusion. And expected value or expectation value (google) is widely used.

(A3) sorting by 'anything'

Now all tables can be SORTED by specific columns, when clicking the column title text (The large table can take ~30 seconds to be sorted. Please be patient. The yellow color disappears when the sorting is finished. Enable Javascript for this work).  Now -with this new sorting option- it makes sense to add more aggregating measures. Please make suggestions which columns I can try out. Thanks. Some first idea already included:

(A4) other sites with districts level information

You find those as links in the "other sites" section below each "Kreis" plot. Please tell me about more Covid19 related projects on the Kreis level. Thanks.



About author, project, funding

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I had started looking into Covid19 on January 28th:

Plenty of data, exponential fits, virus information, news articles, politics, opinion, etc - A good recording of what happened on the timeline.


 
homepage: https://covh.github.io/cov19de/